Has Nothing to Fear from Trumpís Plan?
By Daniel Pipes
May 27, 2018
Jonathan S. Tobin, editor-in-chief of the Jewish News
Syndicate, argues that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "has
nothing to worry about!" when it comes to the expected Trump plan that
recognizes "Palestine" with Jerusalem as its capital, even though such
a plan normally "would be fiercely opposed by the Israeli right and could
potentially set off a coalition crisis."
Why is this lack of concern? Because "Palestinians
will reliably say 'no' to any peace deal," making it virtually certain that
"Trump's peace plan will be dead on arrival." Tobin does not quote but
implicitly evokes Abba
Eban's aphorism that the Arabs "never miss an opportunity to miss an
Even more strikingly, he argues that Trump's prospective
plan "is not an Obama-style messianic quest for peace" but "a
diplomatic diversion that can give some cover to Sunni Muslim states like the
Saudis, Egypt and Jordan as they join with the United States to pursue their
real priority: rolling back the gains Iran made under Obama."
In other words, Tobin contends, Trump's "peace
plan" assumes Palestinian rejection and amounts to an American-Israeli
pretense to ease Saudi and other Arab cooperation with the Jewish state.
I admire Tobin as an analyst and agree with him that
Trump's ultimate goal is to forge an Israeli-Arab coalition against Iran. But I
cannot subscribe to his optimism about Israel's position; my interpretation of
what lies ahead for it (as sketched out here
is much darker. I see (1) the Palestinian Authority saying yes to get U.S.
recognition of Palestine and Jerusalem and (2) Trump's quest for an
"ultimate deal" between Israel and the Palestinians as entirely
sincere and very ambitious.
On the first point: To be sure, the PA has missed
innumerable opportunities but its dire circumstances today (Iran and Syria much
higher priorities than it, Gaza controlled by Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas perhaps
terminally sick, strong U.S.-Israel relations) resemble Yasir Arafat's crisis 25
years ago (the Soviet Union collapsed, Saddam Hussein defeated). Just as Arafat
then took the seemingly momentous step of accepting Israel's existence, so Abbas
or his successor in their moment of crisis will accept the likely demand that
they renounce the Palestinian right of return to what is now Israel.
Why not? Just as Arafat immediately went back on his word
about recognizing Israel (recall the endless disputation about changing
the PLO Charter), so the new leader will instantly backtrack on the right of
return. In other words, the PA will win American recognition of Palestine with
its capital in Jerusalem, plus control of new territory in Jerusalem, by paying
no price at all. Why would the PA turn down such an amazing offer?
Arafat (L) fooled Clinton, his successor will try
to fool Trump.
On the second point, about the whole plan being a sham:
Trump has shown great
interest in achieving a Palestinian-Israeli deal that has eluded his
predecessors; there is no evidence to think he is engaging in a charade. And
where did the idea come from that a feint at a Palestinian-Israeli resolution
would be useful to the Saudis, Jordanians, and Egyptians? Innumerable failures
have not helped thus far, so why would this one mollify the Middle East's
anti-Zionists? No, unless this plan succeeds, it has no value.
And it has zero chance to succeed because it, like all peace plans, assumes that the Palestinians, if only they receive enough benefits, are ready to live peaceably with Israel. But 25 years of the Oslo Accords show otherwise; a great majority of Palestinians, which I estimate at a constant 80 percent, want the Jewish state to vaporize and are willing to pay a high personal price to see that happen. Until this Palestinian fantasy is permanently crushed, all diplomatic efforts are futile. So, it's time to drop all "peace plans" and instead work for an Israeli victory, Palestinian defeat, and both sides moving forward from the stale, destructive, and tragic hostilities of the past century.