Iran is cheating already -- or is
it? Iran has not signed anything, so presumably it cannot be cheating on
something it never agreed to – as predicted on
these pages half a year ago. The self-appointed P5+1 (the five permanent members
of the UN Security Council plus Germany), elected by no one but themselves,
should be embarrassed to find that they have made a deal with no one but
The lavishly touted and lavishly
dangerous "Iran Deal" not only paves the way for Iran to have nuclear
weapons, as it was planning, anyway; it also rewards Iran's repeated violations
of the Non-Proliferation Treaty -- which it did sign -- with up to $150 billion.
With a punishment like that, we should all start violating commitments.
Iran's recent missile tests have,
been undermining the rationale of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),
which the P5+1 signed with itself. If Iran is concerned that its missile tests
might have violated multiple UN Resolutions, a paltry detail such as that
clearly has not bothered anyone before, so why should it bother anyone now?
The media's emphasis on the JCPOA
has sadly neglected any in-depth coverage of Iran's own comprehensive plan of
action, which seems to consist of developing nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles
and related systems to deliver them.
While Western diplomats were
congratulating themselves on their JCPOA arrangement, Iran sent a
"slap-in-the-face" signal to the Free World by launching
an Emad ["Pillar"] ballistic missile on October 10. On
December 8, State Department spokesperson John Kirby indirectlyacknowledged the
launch of a second ballistic missile, fired on November 21. Kirby was quick to
point out that test was not a violation of the JCPOA.
are violations, however, of UN Security Council Resolution #2231,
which bans ballistic missile tests by Iran. Although these tests do not defy the
letter of the JCPOA, they do defy the spirit of it. Even though the initial
missile test was denounced by the U.S. and allied UN representatives, no action
has so far been taken against Iran. The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations,
Samantha Power, did condemn
the October test and probably will also condemn the second test.
But if this is outrage, that may be the extent of it.
What seems clear is that Iran's
Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the ballistic missile
program, is attempting to goad the West into additional punitive action against
the Islamic Republic. Such response would serve to strengthen the hardline
opposition to the JCPOA in Iran. Further, if the United States does nothing but
issue condemnatory rhetoric, it will be interpreted by the regime as additional
confirmation that the U.S. desires a nuclear agreement at virtually any cost.
The International Atomic Energy
Association (IAEA), after its investigation into the Possible Military
Dimensions (PMD) of Iran's past nuclear weapons development activities, was
forced, thanks to Tehran's lack
of cooperation and transparency to
deliver an inconclusive initial report on December 2.
The Iranian regime's officials, such
as Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi, have demanded the immediate
lifting of the 12 UN Resolutions against Iran when the IAEA Board of Governors votes
on the final PMD report on December 15.
The IAEA cannot therefore confirm
with certainty that Iran does not already possess a nuclear bomb, or whether or
not Tehran is presumably still pursuing one. The IAEA Board of Governors is,
nevertheless, not expected to challenge Tehran's assertion that it ceased any
such activities more than a decade ago.
Iran currently has several types of
ballistic missiles in varying stages of development. The range of these missiles
extends from the regional to the intercontinental -- with a version of one
missile capable of reaching the continental United States. The most touted
operational system is the Shahab
("Meteor") program, with several follow-on versions. The
Shahab system has benefited by seemingly close cooperation with North Korea's
ballistic missile program, Russian nuclear weapons engineers who were unemployed
after the Soviet Union imploded, and China's direct and indirect technical
The principal threat to regional
states, particularly to Israel, is that one does not know what one does not know
-- in this instance, the stage of Iran's nuclear weapons programs.
Action by the U.S. Congress to
inquire why the public disclosure of Iranian ballistic missile tests is being
disseminated in dribs and drabs is long overdue, especially as America's
technical intelligence collection methods provide immediate and certain
knowledge of such tests.
Although the U.S. also cannot be
certain of Iran's intentions, it would be advisable to assume that Iran means
what it says: "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." If
one assumes that these statements, made by a regime that stones
women to death, are not mere propaganda, but ideological commitments,
the time to demonstrate the Free World's resolve by way of strategic military
exercises on Iran's borders is long overdue.